This serves as a correction to our previous email:
Since 2018, Iran has acquired half a ton of weapons-usable material.
Ernest J. Moniz
Founder and CEO
Dear Colleague,
Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February, a conflict meant to last several weeks has continued for more than four months, leading to thousands of casualties and major disruptions to the global economy. Throughout that time, I have spoken with various media outlets about the June U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) and what needs to happen next to ensure a durable, long-lasting agreement.
The MOU, as it stands, is not a new Iran deal, but an oil and commodities deal. It leaves unresolved questions around Iran’s nuclear program, its use of missiles and drones, and support for proxies in the region. Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and both sides have committed to cease military operations and negotiate a final deal within 60 days. However, continued attacks between the United States and Iran after signing the MOU have led to renewed uncertainty about completing a deal by the proposed August deadline.
I am skeptical that a detailed agreement can be reached by then—even more so after the apparent end of the ceasefire this week. Negotiating the 2015 Iran nuclear deal took almost two years, resulting in a 150-plus page document. A shortened timeline invites ambiguity, which is not a risk we should be willing to take. The core objective, since 2015, remains the same: Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon.
Two priorities have emerged for the next phase of negotiations. The first concerns Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. Since the United States withdrew from what was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, Iran has acquired half a ton of weapons-usable material. Finding it, assessing its condition, and disposing of it under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight is vital to halting Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
The second priority is verification. Under the JCPOA, Iran was subject to stringent verification measures via the Additional Protocol. IAEA inspectors were granted full access to nuclear sites, both disclosed and undisclosed, and used enhanced monitoring tools to verify that the country was not engaging in proliferation. A new agreement must include a clear commitment from Iran to allow IAEA inspectors timely access to nuclear sites, including suspected covert facilities. Without this, the agreement matters little.
While we are in a more precarious position now than we were in 2015, it benefits the world for the United States and Iran to finalize a long-term agreement. I will be tracking the state of negotiations closely.
Spotlight
SECURITY
Moniz Analyzes the Latest Developments in the U.S.-Iran War
Moniz appeared across major U.S. and international media outlets to share his thoughts on the recent U.S.-Iran MOU. He has provided analysis on ongoing negotiations, the legacy of the 2015 Iran deal, and the importance of robust verification measures to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
EFIF provided a public comment on a proposed rule by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) that changes how federal agencies administer grants and cooperative agreements. The public comment warns that OMB’s proposal to subject applications to political appointee review, expand restrictions on federally funded collaboration with foreign entities of concern, and constrain allowable costs for communicating research findings will limit the U.S. Department of Energy’s ability to support American energy innovation.
SECURITY
Hormuz Conflict Makes Fertilizer an Energy Innovation Priority
A new blog from EFIF’s Energy Innovation Project examines how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global fertilizer supplies and threatening food security. EFIF Executive Vice President Alex Kizer and Research Analyst Akhila Mullapudi highlight the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hydrogen Hubs program as a potential solution, showing how expanded hydrogen production could help strengthen domestic fertilizer production and improve U.S. food security.
INNOVATION
EFIF Welcomes New Global Advisory Committee Members
Our GAC convenes leaders across academia, civil society, government, and industry to provide strategic guidance and help shape our independent, nonpartisan analysis. Buchanan and Fanning’s combined six-plus decades of experience in energy infrastructure, finance, and sustainability will be an incredible asset to the GAC and to our work in tackling the world’s toughest energy challenges.
NUCLEAR
Ana Birchall Joins Nuclear Scaling Initiative’s Global Advisory Board
Ana Birchall has joined the Nuclear Scaling Initiative’s (NSI) Global Advisory Board. She brings over two decades of government leadership and legal expertise, having served as Romania’s deputy prime minister, minister of justice, and minister delegate for European Affairs. Birchall's experience supporting nuclear energy in Romania and Europe will aid NSI’s efforts to accelerate transatlantic deployment.
Leading Conversations
“We are back to square one with a nuclear negotiation with a much less propitious place to be than we were back in 2015.”
– Ernest J. Moniz speaking to Ali Velshi onMS NOW about the U.S.-Iran MOU
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
Upcoming
On July 20, Ernest J. Moniz joins TIME Magazine Senior Correspondent Justin Worland for a mainstage conversation during Aspen Ideas: Climate in Chicago.
Previous Engagements
EFIF Executive Vice President Stephen D. Comello and Director of Energy Finance Lin Yuan attended the International Conference on Financing the Nuclear Future hosted by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, MA. Comello chaired a session on leveraging private capital for new nuclear development.
Moniz participated in a fireside chat with The New York Times’ Opinion Editor Stephen Stromberg at the Earthshot Foundation’s GridIron Finale. Their conversation spanned from the war in Iran to global energy security and grid modernization.
NSI hosted a sideline event at London Climate Action Weekbringing together experts across finance, government, philanthropy, and civil society to strategize ways to invigorate the nuclear energy ecosystem. Ana Birchall, NSI global advisory board member and former deputy prime minister of Romania, and Comello joined the discussion, exploring ongoing efforts to coordinate nuclear orderbooks.
Moniz co-led a session at the SEEC Institute Solutions Summit with Senator Angus King (I-ME) titled “Energy Security, Innovation, Access, and Affordability: One Conversation to Forge the Future.” They examined the market forces and geopolitical events shaping the U.S. energy landscape.
EFIF Project Manager Madeline Cohen spoke with Reuters about the supply chain hurdles facing advanced nuclear reactor construction in the United States despite government support for these projects.
Following a workshop this winter on energy affordability, Comello was quoted in a new article from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. “These kinds of issues tend to be driven by shocks, and we’re seeing that kind of moment now,” he said.
Moniz was quoted in Reuters warning against a U.S. government plan to provide plutonium from Cold War-era nuclear warheads to private companies for reactor fuel. He argued that disposal would be easier, safer, and less costly.
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